PHOENIX — Amid a blanket of snowy weather in some parts of the nation, the League of Alternative Baseball Reality returned this year to the Valley of the Sun for the 33rd annual gathering of fantasy baseball experts.
The unseasonable heat wave that accompanied spring training in Arizona apparently carried over into the auction room as the bidding was sizzling from the outset.
With defending AL champion Ian Kahn unable to make the trip, the runner-up team of Rick Wolf and Glenn Colton offered up Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez as the first player nominated. He didn’t stop until he hit $39 and joined Sabermetrics 101 professor Andy Andres’ squad.
As we’ve come to expect, Andres drove much of the action in the early going. Not content with one slugging superstar, Andres was all-in on the next player nominated as well. The bidding on Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. soared even higher, stopping when Andres bid $47. And for good measure, why not go even higher to add three-time MVP Aaron Judge to the mix for $49?
Those three players depleted more than half of Andres’ $260 budget … in just the first half of Round 1.
Yet many more stars remained to be claimed, including another one for more than $40 in Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez ($42).
FULL DRAFT GRID: AL LABR dollar values, team rosters
Plenty of AL pitching depth
While there were just two starting pitchers at the very top of the pay scale – Tarik Skubal of the Tigers ($39) and Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox ($35) – the wealth of starting pitching depth in the American League had most fantasy managers happy with their staffs.
A total of 13 starters cost between $20 and $27 to roster – the most $20 pitchers in a single draft in AL LABR history. Even as prices finally began to fall, there were still decent bargains available with the Royals’ Kris Bubic going for $7, and both Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo topping out at only $4. (Hmmm. Could these fantasy managers be wary of the power alley fences in Kansas City being moved in this season?)
Among the closers, there seem to be three distinct tiers.
The elite $20 tier: Cade Smith, Andres Munoz, Aroldis Chapman and David Bednar.
The middle $13-$18 tier: Carlos Estevez, Ryan Helsley, Jeff Hoffman, Griffin Jax, Josh Hader and Kenley Jansen.
And the single-digit tier: Seranthony Dominguez, Robert Garcia and a host of other committee candidates.
Feel free to pick a lane because there’s plenty of room between them.
Need for speed
So with all that heavy spending going on, where were the bargains?
It wasn’t among the speed demons. Two players with the capability of swiping upwards of 50 bases – the Yankees’ Jose Caballero (who led MLB with 49 last season) and the Rays’ Chandler Simpson (who totaled 63 steals in the majors and minors) – both topped the $20 mark as well.
Ceddane Rafaela and Luke Keashall, two other stolen base threats with even more secure playing time, went for $23 and $22 respectively. Even new Red Sox third baseman Caleb Durbin cost $19 to roster.
The bottom line: Have a plan going into your draft for how you’re going to address stolen bases.
Health concerns abound
About the only consistent place to conserve some draft capital was on players with questionable injury histories.
Yankees pitchers Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole, both recovering from elbow surgeries and expected to return in May or June, were single-digit buys.
And the Jays’ Shane Bieber, still dealing with forearm fatigue, was only $8.
My USA TODAY squad may be the riskiest one I’ve ever drafted with not only Alvarez and Cole, but Byron Buxton ($23), Jacob deGrom ($22), Kyle Bradish ($20), Jackson Holliday ($16) and Giancarlo Stanton ($6) as well.
It’s a huge gamble to take on that much injury uncertainty all at once. The range of outcomes could almost be extreme as my plane ride from a frigid winter freeze to a scorching weekend in the desert.