The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers rivalry dates back to the earliest days of the NFL, and yet they’ve only ever met in the playoffs two times.
A new chapter will be added in the storied history of these teams in the wild-card round of this year’s postseason, when the Bears host the Packers for a third matchup this year. Chicago and Green Bay each won its home game in the two divisional clashes during the regular season, so this meeting in the playoffs will serve as something of a high-stakes rubber match for the season series.
It’s also a rubber match for the all-time postseason series. The Bears won the first playoff matchup between the two teams in 1941. It took over 60 years for the next postseason meeting in 2010, when the Packers won the NFC championship en route to a Super Bowl 45 victory.
Here’s what to know ahead of Chicago’s first home playoff game in seven years:
Bears vs. Packers wild card game odds
The Bears hold a very slight edge over the Packers in the wild-card matchup, according to the BetMGM NFL odds as of Jan. 5. Not interested in this game? Check out expert picks and best bets for every NFL game this week.
Spread: Bears (-1)
Moneyline: Bears (-110); Packers (-110)
Over/under: 46
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Bears vs. Packers matchups to watch
Ben Johnson vs. Matt LaFleur
Two of the game’s best offensive minds are set to meet in another head-to-head matchup. We’ve seen plenty of this before, when Johnson was the Lions’ offensive coordinator playing the Packers twice per year. But we’ve only seen the two face off as head coaches twice – earlier this year – and never with the stakes so high. Expect to see both of these young masterminds reach deep in their bag to pull out any and everything they can to put more points on the board and move on to the divisional round.
Jordan Love and Packers WRs vs. Bears passing defense
Love was knocked out of the latter matchup between these two teams earlier this year with a head injury, but he put on a show against the Bears in the earlier regular season meeting, throwing for 234 yards and three touchdowns. Chicago’s defense led the NFL in takeaways during the regular season, boosted by a league-leading 23 interceptions as a defense – including one against Love.
The Bears’ takeaway-focused defensive strategy had major boom-or-bust potential all year – Chicago still had the 10th-worst scoring defense despite the turnovers – and they’ll need to figure out how to stop Love and the Packers’ young wideouts without relying so heavily on interceptions.
Packers’ Micah Parsons-less pass-rush vs. Bears O-line and Caleb Williams
In the first 15 weeks of the season, when Green Bay had their prized offseason acquisition healthy, the Packers ranked seventh in dropback success rate allowed (43.9%) and had 34 sacks as a team with 61 tackles for a loss. Since Parsons’ injury in Week 15, Green Bay is allowing the sixth-highest success rate on dropbacks (53.2%) and had two sacks as a team – both by third-stringers against Max Brosmer in Week 18 – with 11 TFLs.
The Bears’ re-tooled offensive line has been one of its biggest strengths this year, and Williams evades sacks better than almost any other starting quarterback. His 10.8% pressure-to-sack rate is third-lowest of quarterbacks with nine or more starts this year. The Packers are going to have a hard time getting to the quarterback in this matchup and are still looking for their first win without Parsons active.
Early prediction for Bears vs. Packers
Bears 24, Packers 23
It’s a division game in the playoffs. If the first two games these two teams played in the regular season were any indication, this one is also coming down to the wire.
Ultimately, the Packers have looked like a different (read: weaker) team since Parsons suffered his season-ending ACL tear. Quarterback Jordan Love’s absence with a concussion did nothing to help their outlook as they lost four straight to end the season, but at least they’re getting him back for this game.
Week 18 weirdness aside, the Bears have looked resurgent in their first season under Johnson, particularly on offense. Williams has taken a step forward in his second season as a pro, and the offensive line is suddenly among the league’s best, opening up more possibilities in the run and passing games.
Green Bay has won three playoff games since LaFleur took over as head coach in 2019 and only one in the last four years. The injury to Parsons and lack of home-field advantage thanks to their four-game slide down the stretch may be enough to keep LaFleur and the Packers from a fourth playoff win since 2019 and first in two years.